Predicting 2026: Sales Tax Trends Ecommerce Sellers Must Prepare For

As 2025 winds down, ecommerce sellers and business owners have plenty to reflect on, and even more to prepare for. This year brought accelerated changes: states expanded taxes on digital goods, tariffs reshaped pricing and supply chains, marketplace facilitator laws were clarified, and AI began transforming tax compliance.

As the ecommerce landscape continues to grow, 2026 may see even more consequential changes. The ongoing ripple effects of tariffs and macroeconomic pressure are expected to influence nexus rules, while new legislation and automation will continue to reshape how businesses collect and remit sales tax.

While the future is always uncertain, here’s what ecommerce sellers can expect next year—and how to get ahead.

Worried about 2026? See which of our Sales Tax Tiers fits your business best.

Prediction 1: Digital Goods & SaaS Will Become Taxable in More States

Evidence from 2025

In 2025, several states broadened their sales tax bases to include digital goods, SaaS, and streaming services. Louisiana led the way, followed by Washington’s new taxes on many digital services, including advertising and website development.

What to expect in 2026

Expect more states to continue to clarify SaaS and digital taxability or pass targeted legislation. Chicago’s proposed tax budget for 2026 includes cloud tax, online sports betting tax, and even social media tax. Although proposed in early 2023, New York continues to explore tax on streaming services. States that already tax digital goods will continue to clarify product definitions and provide more guidance.

Actionable steps sellers can take

• Inventory products and map them to current state tax codes.
• Ensure accurate product taxonomy on your retail website.
• Stay informed on digital tax laws—especially in high-population states.

Prediction 2: Marketplace Facilitator Laws Will Consolidate – Platforms Will Expand Coverage

Evidence from 2025

By 2025, marketplace facilitator laws have been enacted in all taxing states and the District of Columbia. States continued to refine the rules to include more types of marketplaces and transactions.

What to expect in 2026

Facilitator laws will likely become more uniform nationwide, with expanded reporting requirements for shipping, bundled goods, and delivery fees. Expect more audits to target facilitator-collected vs. seller-collected gaps.

Actionable steps sellers can take

• Reconcile marketplace and direct sales separately.
• Follow each platform’s facilitator tax guidelines.

Tip: See current marketplace facilitator laws in our state-by-state guides.

Prediction 3: States Will Lower or Eliminate Transaction Thresholds

Evidence from 2025

Several states simplified nexus rules this year, emphasizing revenue thresholds vs. transaction count. Alaska and Utah dropped their 200-transaction threshold, keeping only a $100,000 revenue threshold. Illinois will do the same on January 1, 2026.

What to expect in 2026

While there are only a few states left with transaction nexus thresholds, it is likely that they will all be removed eventually. This means that low-volume, high-ticket sellers may owe sales tax in new states.

Actionable steps sellers can take

• Monitor monthly revenue by state.
• Set automated alerts in your accounting or tax dashboard when state revenue nears thresholds.

Prediction 4: AI Will Drive Faster, More Targeted Sales Tax Audits

Evidence from 2025

Some states—particularly New York—and large tax firms began testing AI-driven audit selection, using the technology to identify noncompliance. Deloitte notes rising automation in tax administration, as well as increased favor toward AI as an essential resource to aid the tax workforce.

What to expect in 2026

AI will become a standard tool for tax enforcement, enabling states to cross-match marketplace data, payment processors, and returns. The California Department of Tax and Fee Administration has its eye on AI for identifying tax noncompliance, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has proposed significant funding for AI-driven data analytics and fraud prevention.

Actionable steps seller can take

• Ensure compliant state sales tax registrations.
• Reconcile payments and returns monthly.
• Backups, backups, backups: retain 4+ years of records. Record retention requirements vary by state, but most require a minimum retention period of 4 years.

Need audit assistance? We offer flat-rate audit support so you can stay focused on growth.

Prediction 5: Tariffs and Inventory Shifts Will Re-shape Nexus

Evidence from 2025

Trade tensions and tariffs changed a lot for retailers in 2025. Many businesses were forced to relocate inventory, change fulfillment partners, and raise prices. These shifts created new physical nexus exposures, as sellers moved stock across state lines.

What to expect in 2026

If tariffs continue, global growth is expected to slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects U.S. growth at 1.8%, down nearly 1% compared to earlier forecasts. Businesses may re-shore and diversify suppliers, creating more inventory-held-by-sellers or fulfillment centers triggering nexus. States may also audit inventory flows more aggressively.

Actionable steps sellers can take

• Stay current on physical nexus rules in states where you hold inventory.
• Clarify tax responsibilities with third-party sellers and fulfillment centers.

If you store inventory in multiple states, you may have nexus there. Get a Nexus Determination for one flat rate.

Prediction 6: Hybrid Tax Management Will Start to Become the Norm

Evidence from 2025

Deloitte’s 2025 Tax Transformation Trends found that 86% businesses outsource at least one tax function. However, human oversight remain essential and preferred for complex state requirements and strategic guidance.

What to expect in 2026

There will be increased demand for hybrid services—automation pair with human expertise and review. According to the Future of Professionals Report 2025 from Thomson Reuters, 79% of tax pros believe AI adoption will transform the future of the industry.

Actionable steps sellers can take

• Choose a provider offering automation and human expertise.
• Prioritize transparent pricing, fast onboarding, and ecommerce specialization.

2026 Action Checklist

1. Map every product to current state tax codes.
2. Verify product categories and tax settings on your site.
3. Stay updated on new sales tax laws and changes.
4. Reconcile marketplace vs. direct sales monthly.
5. Follow your marketplace facilitator’s tax rules.
6. Track monthly revenue by state.
7. Set alerts when nearing state nexus thresholds.
8. Reconcile reports and keep registrations current.
9. Back up records—keep at least 4 years of data.
10. Monitor inventory locations for physical nexus.
11. Confirm tax duties with 3PLs or fulfillment partners.
12. Choose a transparent, ecommerce-focused tax partner.